Probability and Petition

Here's a simple, elegant argument in support of CORD's Presidential petition filing:

(1) The Presidential election took place in 290 constituencies.*

(2) Any Kenyan election that occurs in 290 constituencies is likely to have irregularities (there is no need to assume they're maliciously intended).

(3) Relative to the electorate, Uhuru's 50%+1 margin is small (c 8K votes).

(4) Since the margin is small, it's not unlikely that the irregularities will swamp it.


This reasoning is short. It relies on uncontroversial claims.** Its persuasive power doesn't rely on conspiracy theorising; ethnic hatred; attributions of malice; attributions of incompetence; or the stupidity of the audience. Together, 1-4 seem to render the the intended conclusion credible (or worthy of belief).

To repeat. The argument is thoroughly uncontroversial: even the hardest core of Jubilants will buy it, if they hear it in a quiet moment. In these divided times, we can still agree: high probability buys credibility.


*290 actual constituencies.

**Uncontroversial does not mean true. The likely in (2) and (4) has something like the force of statistically probable but I don't think that statistical probability buys credibility (because, lotteries). I'm still happy to commend the argument to you.